Earth System Model Projections of the Future of Global Marine Fisheries

Seminar flyer for 10/31

Prof. Daniele Bianchi
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
Monday October 31, 2022, 2 PM ET



The global wild marine fish harvest increased fourfold between 1950 and its current peak, but is
projected to decline in a future ocean, reflecting interactions between human, ecological and climate
drivers. In this talk, I will examine these interactions in an Earth System perspective, using a coupled
fishery-economics model. I will use a combination of hindcast simulations and future scenarios to
highlight the major role of economic drivers, with climate change increasingly important under effective
management. I will then discuss results from the recent Fishery Model Intercomparison Project
(FishMIP), which suggest pervasive biomass reduction and amplification of this decline at higher
trophic levels under high emission scenarios. I will conclude by examining sources of uncertainty in
future fishery projections, showing a dominant role for model uncertainty, and ongoing efforts to reduce


Daniele Bianchi is an assistant professor at University of California Los Angeles. His research focuses
on the interactions between ocean physics, chemistry and marine life, using a combination of
observational syntheses and numerical models. Specific focuses of his research are oxygen minimum
zones and the ocean carbon and nitrogen cycle, the California Current System, and fisheries. Contact: Webpage:


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Zoom Meeting ID: 993 9896 8645
Zoom password: essic

US Toll: +13017158592
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Oct 31 2022


John Xun Yang